Racism, Sexism and Black Voter Turnout

If you think that racism and sexism played a part in the last election you are right.  But it may not be in the way you thought.  The Brookings Institute has now joined the Pew Research Center, the Washington Post and even a Democratic post mortem to present data on what happened to the minority vote during the 2016 election.  They all read like a missing person’s report.

            There are six states, in particular, that sent their electoral votes to Barack Obama in 2016 but did not return the favor for Hillary Clinton.  Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida all went blue in 2016.  If any three (!!!) of those states would have stayed in the Democratic column, Hillary Clinton would be President today.

Of these, Wisconsin is probably the most illustrative.  The number of popular votes that Wisconsin gave Trump is almost to the penny the same number it gave Romney in 2016.  Romney lost and Trump won.  So what was the difference?  Whether you like it or not, whether it fits your bias or not, whether you think it is politically correct or not, it was black votes who just didn’t show up on election day. 

Black voter turnout in the last election was down below even 2008 levels.  It counts in the millions and is cost the Democrats the election. 

The turnout of all eligible voters was down slightly this cycle (61.4% from 61.8% in 2012).  What is more, there has always been a gap between white and minority voter participation.  But during the Obama elections the gap shortened to less than 10%.  In fact, in 2012 the percentage of eligible black voters who DID vote exceeded the percentage of white voters who exercised the same privilege.   But did this ground swell of black voters carry it through to a white female Democrat?  No.  

In fact, in this election that gap of none participation between black and white voters bounced back to a record 12% separation.  The decline in the black community was 7.1% which pegs their voting rate at the lowest rate since 2000!  What is more, this decline is unique to the black community.  Hispanics, which the Democrats assumed would surge strong against Trump showed a modest 0.4% decline over-all and Asian minority turnout increased. 

But, you might ask, what about all those white, male, non-college educated voters—the great unwashed—that were supposed to turn the tables for Trump?  Those voters did increase but only by 1%, from 54.8% in 2012 to 55.8% in 2016.  But this number was markedly lower than it was in 2004 in the election of George W. Bush.   It was also more than 20 points lower than white men or women with college degrees who did vote.   

Here are the numbers that count.  In Michigan, the black vote dropped by 5%.  In Ohio the black vote dropped by 8%; in Pennsylvania by 3%; Wisconsin by almost 30% (!!!); North Carolina by better than 10%; Florida by 8%.  In each of these states, white turnout was virtually static, dropped slightly or rose by less than 5% in each case.

It boils down to this: in both 2008 and 2012 black voters went to the polls to vote for a black man.  But in 2016 these same voters wouldn’t get off the couch and go to the polls to vote for a white woman.  I don’t know if that is racist or sexist, but it definitely is one or the other—maybe both. 

Forget the artificial outrage and hollow excuses, face the truth and keep the faith.