The Electoral College Will Not Work to Romney's Advantage


I am a strong supporter of the Electoral College.  It has worked smoothly over 94% of the time.  If you want more faithful service than that you need a golden retriever. 

Article II Section 1 of the Constitution is proof that the framers were both geniuses and masters of the all important concept of compromise.  There were some in 1787 who wanted the President of the United States elected by members of Congress.  Others thought he should be elected by direct vote of the people.  The common ground they came to was the Electoral College. 

Each state was given a number of electors equal to its number of representatives and two senators.  The inclusion of the two senators is the mathematically significant piece.  It empowers the small states disproportionate to their size.  Wyoming, the Dakotas, Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, all become a little more vociferous because we count not just their population, but their equal representation in the Senate in electing our President.  This is increased when you consider the geographic, cultural and socio-economic homogeneity of many small states when treated as a region. It is true that the visits of both major candidates to states like South Dakota (3 votes) has been negligible, but that would only be exacerbated if we elected through popular vote only.    

The current number of electors is 538, so 270 are needed for an Electoral majority.  That is why populous but swing states like Ohio (18 votes) and Florida (13 votes) get lots of attention.  That is also while very large states which are predictably red or blue like Texas (38) and California (55) get less pre-election hype. 

When you cast your Presidential ballot on November 6th you are actually voting for a set of electors, chosen by the party leaders in your state.  You probably would not recognize the names of most of these people, and they like it that way.  These Electors are not, in fact, bound to vote as you have requested.  For example, an elector, chosen by President Obama’s team in a state that goes solidly for the President is still a free agent and can cast his vote for Romney if he wishes.  It has rarely, but, in fact, happened that an elector has voted his, “conscience” instead of his instructions.   That must have led to an interesting ride back on the train! 

There have also been times when Presidents won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote:  In 1824 John Quincy Adams lost both the popular and electoral vote to Andrew Jackson, but, because Jackson did not have the required majority the issue went to the House of Representatives where Adams’ surrogates negotiated his miserable one term Presidency.  Jackson won the next two elections.  In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won a heated and controversial election over Samuel J. Tilden.  And in 1888 Benjamin Harrison won an electoral victory over Grover Cleveland, who came back and won his second (nonconsecutive) term.  Most recently, in 2000 George W. Bush won over Al Gore.

This year, I fear that the Electoral College may perform in a way that will both create history and defeat my candidate.  I believe President Obama will end up losing the popular vote to Governor Romney, but still win the electoral vote.  If he does, he will make history as the first incumbent to lose the popular vote but still retain the office.  I hope not, but I don’t believe in changing rules to fit the desired outcome.

We need to get out the vote in swing states, and keep the faith.  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Generation of Serfs

  On October 25, 1415, Henry V of England laid some serious hurt on the French at the Battle of Agincourt at Pas-de-Calais, France.   Part of the success of this campaign was due to Henry’s use of the longbow, but part of it also goes to the creative use of military indentures.   These legal contracts required all the English captains to provide specified amounts of men, material and time to the King’s cause.             An indenture was a document, written in duplicate and then torn along a jagged line, like little teeth ( dents ), in the paper.   One portion of the contract was in possession of each party and when the required conditions and period of service were fulfilled, the parts reunited, and the debt was considered paid.   Many of the people who first came to this country from England came as indentured servants, worked off their debt and became the backbone of the country.             Today we are creating a nation not of indentured servants, someone with a carefully
Read more

Our Beautiful Constitution and its Ugly Opponents

 The Constitution is our anchor of stability in a turbulent world!   We can withstand a bad President and a petulant Congress (for the short term, at least) because our Constitution both guides and limits.   If someone asked me to provide proof of a loving God, I would simply ask them how else so many geniuses in the matter of human governance could have been clustered together in the right time and place to create both our country and the means to govern it.    Our founding fathers had the vision to devise a way to not only govern themselves, but govern a country that they could not imagine, yet believed would prevail. The constitution of the United States is like a good parent.   It has allowed us to grow up as we have grown older, with the result that the United States of America is the oldest living democracy in the world.   The miracle of this document is that it lives, breathes and moves with the times.   The three branches of our government work together while standing alone
Read more

"You Didn't Build That:" Part I

Late in the day on Friday, July 13 th , President Obama mounted the stage of Historic Firehouse Number One in Roanoke , Virginia .   The room held around 800 people but it was hot and several people fainted.   In front of a carefully screened group of supporters he gave one of the most important speeches of his reelection campaign.    It was not meant to be a major speech.   That will come in the even more carefully scripted Convention Hall in Charlotte , North Carolina this September in front of adoring media and rabid political supporters.   But this speech in Roanoke is crucial to the 2012 election because on Friday, in Virginia , President Obama went off message.   Whether through error or hubris, he abandoned his script and spoke off the cuff.   And in so doing, he showed us the man behind the curtain.   The angry but controlled, insecure yet charismatic, market fearful, socialistically inclined man that Barrack Obama really is. I am speaking, of course, of the now famou
Read more