Trump Can Not Win, and This is Why

On March 3, 2016, I wrote this blog and nothing in this convention has changed these cold, hard facts.  I have changed the last sentence to reflect my current thinking.  
 
Mitt Romney has just finished eviscerating Donald Trump.  Romney couldn’t have taken Trump apart better had he used a filleting knife.  Had this invective been directed at me, my family would have to put me on suicide watch.  Instead of the name-calling bombast of the school yard bully that typifies Trump's tirades, Romney went piece by piece through Trump’s own statements and bulleted, one by one, why each would not work.  It was a dissertation.  It was scholarly.  It was correct.  It may be too late, but at least he—we, the real Republicans, not the lathered wing-nuts—are on record. 
            Unfortunately, the crazies who currently vote for Trump do not want reason.  They are the Ferguson, Missouri mob, furious with authority, running down the street, breaking windows and setting fires, never mind their own shops and homes are destroyed in the melee.  
            I am also dismayed that the studied analysis that Romney provided will be boiled down by the intellect light media to sound bites that side-step the destruction of Trump’s credibility.  But one statement that Romney said is worthy of a little analysis, and meshes with other information that I have been observing. 
            Trump likes to tout every poll that shows him in a favorable light, but ignores the polls that consistently showing him losing—badly—to Hillary.  He consistently says he will win the Presidency and start making the world over in the limited vision of his supporters.  Like addicts, Trump’s voters refuse to accept reality.  They certainly cannot sever ties with their dealer.  Even if you showed them their ultimate death of an overdose they would close their eyes and deny, deny, deny. 
Well, deny this:
1.      Trump will need to get 70% of the white vote to win the popular vote.  Can he?  Romney got 59% of the white vote in 2012.  Reagan got a watershed 66% in 1984.  Trump would have to beat that.  He can’t. Why?
2.      First, 60% of all Republicans have rejected him already in every primary election/caucus conducted.  If those votes weren’t divided among so many possible candidates, Trump wouldn’t have won a single meet.  When I hear Storm-Trumpers talking about the party rejecting their choice, I need to point out that he isn’t the choice of 2/3 of the party.  Republicans have already rejected Trump, you just don’t understand the difference between a plurality and a majority.  Huge numbers of these life-long Republicans will not vote for Trump.  Whether they support Hillary or a Third Party, they facilitate the same loss for Trump.
3.      Republicans of principle have already abandoned Trump.  The increased numbers in Republican primaries are coming from blue-collar Democrats who followed their union dictates down the road to a party they no longer feel represents them.  [It doesn’t.]  But these voters have not shown themselves committed to Republican values.  If anything they are still steeped in Democratic values and expect a party to provide an endless parade of unearned benefits in exchange for a predictable vote.  Republicans who feel they have been made fools of by a closet liberal will not vote for Trump and feel no compulsion to accommodate his followers. 
4.     Trump's antipathy for minorities will spur on the minority turn-out for Hillary, especially among Hispanics who have high voter turnout and will turn states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado (who voted Republican in 2004) to the Democrats. 
Trump will lose the Presidency.  I hope he doesn't carry a single state.  Unfortunately, Republicans will also lose seats in both the House and Senate.  Fact.  Period.  Live with it. 
By rejecting Trump, I keep the faith. 

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