Global Warming and Sun Spots

For those who love the stuff of science fiction movies, let me tell you that the 11 year solar cycle is collapsing.  Forget the Mayans and 2012, this is the real deal. 

Before you head to the bomb shelter, lets talk about the solar cycle.  Most obviously, solar cycles produce sun spots.  The current cycle ( # 24) may produce only about half as many sun spots as is typical, and cycle # 25 may not produce any at all.  Sunspots, probably first discovered by Galileo in 1613, fascinate astronomers.  It has been long known that they occur in 11-year cycles and more recently we found that this also mirrors the Sun’s magnetic activity.  This magnetic activity produces solar flares and coronal eruptions (like the one that occurred last week, disrupting satellite activity around the world).   All of this activity on the sun’s surface blasts solar winds (proton ejections of intense energy) that bombard the earth causing radiation spikes and the auroras.

Who cares, right?  So there aren’t any sunspots.  Big deal.  Actually, it may be a very big deal.  From 1645 to 1715 sunspots almost disappeared creating what is called the Maunder Minimum.  This period is also known as the, “Little Ice Age.”  What is more, the Maunder Minimum only corresponds with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age.  It does not include the years of extraordinary cold leading up to and away from the more agriculturally friendly temperatures, which, by the way, also meant more sunspot activity. 

There are three reasons why the scientists who make studying solar activity their bread and butter think we are heading for a breakdown in the 11 year cycle.  First, the solar jet streams that feed the sunspots start at the solar poles and move toward the sun's equator as the sun spots show up.  This sunspot engine always starts down the track while the older engine is still in motion closer to the equator.  There is absolutely no evidence of a new jet stream forming to replace the current one.  There is no hint of a jet stream in either of the sun’s hemispheres, and they are three years over due.
 
Second, the solar corona (the extremely hot outer atmosphere) makes a, “rush to the poles” as the jet stream begins.  This wipes out all traces of the previous magnetic polarity and the sun's North and South Poles flip during this time.  Our poles, by the way, periodically flip on this planet, though we don’t know when or why.  There has been no such movement of the corona on the sun.  Nor do we know what this means for us if the sun’s polarity does not flip.  Good news?  Bad news, or no news at all?

Finally, the average magnetic strength of the sunspot umbra (the dark center spot) has been dropping dramatically.  As the strength dies, so does the effect of the sunspots.

All of this academic information is going to prove very interesting during the next decades when we may be able to learn two things.  First, we will learn whether the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age were an unhappy accident or a solar case of cause and effect which will be visited upon this planet effecting temperatures, weather and agriculture, as well as our dependence on various forms of energy.  Second, we will learn if the people who are politically vested in anthropomorphic global warming will now admit that our planet is much more at the mercy of big sun than big oil. 

Stay tuned for act II of the global warming mystery theater.